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Memorial Day Weekend depression or storm likely, flooding the main impact

5/24/2018 (Permalink)

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) -
The WLOX First Alert Weather Team continues to watch a tropical disturbance, known as Invest 90-L, over the Yucatan Peninsula. Alerts have been issued for parts of the WLOX Area in anticipation of flash flooding.


The FIRST ALERT for our area has been issued ahead of an expected wet Memorial Day weekend. Flash flooding will be possible with a potential for very heavy rainfall some time between Saturday & Tuesday. This alert may be expanded to include a larger area. #MSwx @WLOX

WLOX / May 24
Tropical disturbance 90-L was located over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday morning, moving slowly northward. 90-L is projected to cross over into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this holiday weekend, likely becoming a depression or a storm, according to a Thursday update from the National Hurricane Center.

After that, the possible system is projected to make a Gulf Coast landfall somewhere from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle threatening very heavy rain.

"Signs are coming together that this is going to be a significant rainfall and flooding threat to South Mississippi this holiday weekend," said WLOX First Alert Meteorologist Wesley Williams on Thursday. "River residents will want to pay close attention."

"Forecast models indicate this system could make a landfall anywhere from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, including right here in South Mississippi," Williams said. "No model information indicates this will become strong enough to be a hurricane. So, wind will likely not be a major issue. But, worst-case-scenario it could become a weak tropical storm."

"Exactly where it will make a landfall will be key," said Williams. "If the center takes a track over southeast Louisiana, that scenario puts South Mississippi in the eastern side of the system which means the worst rain and wind. But, if the center takes a track over the Florida Panhandle, that would put South Mississippi on the western side of the system which could mean drier conditions."


Thursday's GFS & European models show a low pressure system with tropical-storm-force wind making landfall along the Gulf Coast around Memorial Day Monday. Anywhere from New Orleans, LA to Pensacola, FL is up for a potential landfall. No model shows hurricane winds. #MSwx @WLOX


"While there is still some uncertainty, local residents will want to prepare for the potential of widespread rainfall and storms on Sunday and Memorial Day Monday and a possible landfall from a tropical system," said Williams. "If it becomes a storm, it will likely take the name Alberto, this season's 'A-name' from the list of 2018 Atlantic storm names."

"Remember, computer models are great tools for forecasting," Williams said. "But, with poorly-organized systems, they are usually less accurate. However, as soon as this disturbance gets over the Gulf and possibly becomes better organized, we should have a much more accurate picture of what to expect."

Keep an eye on this developing situation as this tropical disturbance nears the Gulf this week and we learn more about its ultimate track and potential impacts.

Hurricane season officially starts on June 1. Is your hurricane plan ready? It should be ready before hurricane season starts.

South Mississippi 5-Day Forecast Timeline and Summary:

Thursday: Scattered storms

Friday: Thunderstorms likely

Saturday: Thunderstorms likely and possibly some tropical rain bands

Sunday: Widespread rainfall and extensive thunderstorms. Possibly tropical-storm-force wind depending on storm track.

Monday: Widespread rainfall and extensive thunderstorms. Possibly tropical-storm-force wind depending on storm track.

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